Baja California Sur Weather (wx) stuff

576 
WTPZ42 KNHC 240245
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
900 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
The changes to the satellite presentation of Polo this evening 
indicate the hurricane has significantly strengthened. The symmetric 
eye has gradually cleared out and warmed, and it is now surrounded 
by a thick ring of very deep convection with cloud top temperatures 
of -75 to -80 deg C. The objective and subjective satellite 
intensity estimates have quickly increased this evening as a result, 
and the initial intensity is set at 140 kt, making Polo a category 5 
hurricane once again.
 
Polo has taken a slow north-northwestward jog this evening, but the 
long-term motion remains northwestward (320/5 kt). The short-term 
track forecast has been nudged slightly northward to account for the 
northward jog. A mid-level ridge over Texas and northern Mexico is 
expected to gradually build westward during the next couple of days, 
which should steer Polo to the northwest and west-northwest away 
from mainland Mexico through Friday night. Then, an upper-level 
trough is forecast to approach the west coast of the United States 
this weekend. This will weaken the steering ridge and cause Polo to 
turn toward the northwest and north later in the forecast period, 
bringing the center toward Baja California Sur. However, there is 
still quite a bit of along- and cross-track spread regarding the 
details of this anticipated turn. The long-range portion of the 
track forecast remains close to the previous one, closely following 
the HCCA and TVCN aids through 96 h.
 
Now that Polo has completed an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), some 
additional near-term strengthening could occur with conducive 
environmental and oceanic conditions in place. The updated NHC 
forecast accounts for this potential and lies on the upper end of 
the guidance. Of course, strong hurricanes like Polo can also be 
susceptible to intensity fluctuations related to internal dynamic 
processes like ERCs that are difficult to predict. Regardless, there 
is high confidence that Polo will remain a powerful major hurricane 
for the next few days. Vertical wind shear is forecast to increase 
over the hurricane in 48-72 h, and a somewhat faster rate of 
weakening is shown thereafter. Overall, the NHC intensity forecast 
follows the multi-model trends and lies on the higher end of the 
envelope for most of the period.
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
westward from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across portions
of the coast within the warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to
Manzanillo tonight into early Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 16.0N 102.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 16.5N 103.7W  150 KT 175 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 16.9N 105.6W  145 KT 165 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 17.1N 107.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 17.3N 109.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 17.9N 111.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 19.2N 112.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 22.5N 113.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 25.5N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

501 
WTPZ41 KNHC 240250
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026
 
The convective organization of Odalys has remained largely unchanged
over the past several hours. However, the hurricane continues to
produce deep convection with cloud-top temperatures around -80 C
expanding north and west of the center. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB came in at 4.5/77 kt, supported by objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS, namely DMINT and ADT, at 78 and 72 kt,
respectively. Given these data and the deeper convection, the
initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 85/6 kt. This
general motion is expected to continue through the next day or so
before turning toward the northeast and then north. Odalys is being
steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its
northwest and a ridge extending southwestward from central Mexico.
Beyond day 3, potential interaction with Hurricane Polo complicates
the track forecast of Odalys, and model spread increases
significantly at this time.  The current NHC track forecast is
largely unchanged from the previous advisory, and remains close to
the corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean.
 
Odalys is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for the next
24 h, which could allow for additional strengthening or at least
intensity maintenance. Thereafter, increasing westerly vertical wind
shear, lower SSTs, and mid-level dry air will induce a steady
weakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows the
corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA) and remains aligned with the
previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 15.6N 126.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 16.1N 125.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 17.7N 123.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 18.5N 123.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 20.8N 122.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 22.3N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen